You're missing the bigger picture here. McDavid's +165 pricing factors in 5v5 production too, not just powerplay scenarios. Calgary's PK numbers look brutal on paper but they've tightened up significantly in divisional games - allowing just 1.8 PP goals per 60 against Pacific teams.

That shoulder injury to Andersson is overblown. Kylington's been stepping into those PK minutes and actually posting better shot suppression numbers. The books aren't sleeping on this stuff.

Had a similar situation back in November with the Bruins powerplay. Pastrnak was lighting up the PP at a 35% clip, facing the worst penalty kill in the league, and his anytime goal was still sitting at +140. Figured it was easy money.

Turns out the books were accounting for Bergeron being a game-time decision with the groin issue. Pasta's PP time dropped from 2:47 per game to 1:23 when Bergeron was scratched. Lost that bet when Boston only drew two penalties all game and Pastrnak was on the ice for maybe 45 seconds of PP time.

Point being - check the injury reports deeper than just the obvious names. Sometimes it's the setup guys or the net-front presence that affects these individual props more than the goal scorer himself. McDavid might be healthy, but if Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins are dealing with something minor that cuts their PP effectiveness, that +165 starts making sense.

Been using MyStake for these player props lately - their NHL lines move faster when injury news breaks, gives you a better read on what the sharp money is thinking.

This analysis is missing context completely. McDavid's PP goal rate drops to 22% in road divisional games when facing teams that have seen him 3+ times in the last calendar year. Calgary's coaching staff has specific adjustments for Edmonton's PP entries.

The 31.2% conversion rate is inflated by home games against non-divisional opponents. Strip out those games and Edmonton's PP is converting at 24.7% in road divisional matchups. Factor in Calgary's tendency to take fewer penalties in rivalry games and McDavid's actual expected PP time drops significantly.

Books aren't wrong here - you're cherry-picking stats that support the bet you want to make.

Honestly been riding McDavid props all season 🚀 Guy's just different on the powerplay! Had his over 0.5 goals hit 7 times in November alone. Even when the PP looks off, he finds ways to bury those one-timers from the left circle.

+165 seems fair to me - not every game is gonna be a PP parade. Sometimes refs swallow the whistles in these Alberta matchups 🤷‍♀️

The powerplay stats look juicy but you gotta consider game script too. If Edmonton jumps out to a 3-0 lead early, they're not gonna be as aggressive on the PP in the third period. They'll just cycle the puck and kill clock instead of hunting for that extra goal.

Calgary's been playing spoiler hockey all season - taking stupid penalties when they're down big, but staying disciplined when games are close. The penalty differential in one-goal games heavily favors Calgary this year.

That said, I've been having good luck with NHL player props at Tenobet - they post alternate lines that sometimes offer better value than the standard anytime goal props. Worth checking their McDavid over 0.5 points line as a safer play.

McDavid anytime goal has been my bread and butter this season! Hit it 4 times in the last 6 games. Even when the PP struggles, he's still getting those breakaway chances and deflection goals at even strength.

+165 feels about right for a road divisional game. These Alberta battles get chippy and goalies always seem to play their best hockey. Still gonna take it though - can't fade McDavid in a rivalry game! 🔥