Oilers McDavid anytime assist at -110 vs Senators but Ottawa powerplay allows 4.8 shots per advantage

You're missing the bigger picture here. McDavid's assist prop is inflated because casual money hammers anything Connor-related at -110 or better. Ottawa's penalty kill might be leaky on shots allowed, but they're actually converting those stops into transition chances.

Senators are 8-3 at home when outshooting opponents on special teams. If they're getting 4.8 shots against per PK, that means they're also generating odd-man rushes the other way. McDavid gets caught up ice on those transitions more than people realize.

Had a similar read on McDavid assists two weeks ago when Edmonton played Montreal. The Canadiens were allowing 5.1 shots per penalty kill, worst in the league at that point, and McDavid was sitting at -120 for anytime assist.

Figured it was easy money, especially since Montreal had been taking 3.4 penalties per home game. First period, Oilers get three powerplays, McDavid sets up Draisaitl twice but both shots hit iron. Second period, another PP chance, McDavid feeds Nugent-Hopkins for what should've been a tap-in, but the puck bounced off his stick.

By the third period, I'm watching McDavid rack up shot assists that don't count for the prop. He ended with zero official assists despite creating four grade-A scoring chances. Sometimes the numbers look perfect on paper, but hockey props are still about puck luck. That said, 28.3% PP efficiency for Edmonton is legit, and if Ottawa takes their usual penalties tonight, McDavid should get plenty of looks. I'm probably still on the over at -110, but tempered expectations after that Montreal disaster.

McDavid assist props are sucker bets when the line moves toward even money. Books know casual players love betting on superstars.

Line movement from -125 to -110 screams sharp action on the under. In my experience tracking NHL props, when BetOnline moves a McDavid assist line that direction, it's usually because their sharp clients are seeing something the public missed.

Could be Ottawa's defensive zone coverage is tighter than the shot totals suggest, or maybe there's injury news that hasn't broken yet. Either way, that kind of line movement on a marquee prop usually means the smart money disagrees with your read.

Dropped 2.4 BTC on McDavid over 1.5 points last month when he was facing Vancouver's penalty kill. Sometimes you just ride the best player in the world regardless of the defensive metrics.

Been tracking McDavid assist props since the season started, and there's a pattern most people miss. When Ottawa plays at home against elite offensive teams, they actually tighten up their penalty kill structure significantly. I watched them against Tampa Bay three weeks ago, and despite allowing their usual shot volume, the quality of those shots was much lower.

The Senators coaching staff makes adjustments for games like this. They'll sacrifice some offensive zone time to keep McDavid from getting those easy cross-ice feeds on the powerplay. What you're seeing in the 4.8 shots allowed per PK is mostly perimeter stuff against weaker offensive units.

That said, I've been using MyStake for these NHL props lately, and their lines tend to be a bit softer than the mainstream books. If you're convinced on the McDavid assist, might be worth checking if they're still hanging -115 or better. Sometimes the line shopping makes the difference on these tight props where variance can kill you either way.