Jets moneyline dropped from -145 to -120 after Scheifele cleared concussion protocol

You're reading this completely wrong. Scheifele clearing protocol doesn't mean he's 100% - guy took a nasty hit from Parayko last week and these concussion timelines are always rushed. Smart money knows he'll be playing cautious for at least 2-3 games.

Plus Winnipeg's been garbage on back-to-backs lately, 2-6 in their last 8. Blues might be struggling but they're getting a gift here with the public hammering Jets based on one injury update.

Had a similar situation last month with the Oilers when McDavid came back from his ankle thing. Books opened Edmonton at -180 against Seattle, then the line moved to -155 within hours of Connor getting cleared. Ended up being a trap - McDavid played 16 minutes instead of his usual 22, looked tentative in the corners, and the Kraken won 4-2.

The thing with head injuries is guys come back physically but mentally they're still gun-shy. Scheifele's a smart player but he's not going to be throwing his body around like normal for at least a week. I've been tracking these comeback spots all season and the under-performance rate is around 60% in the first game back.

Grabbed Blues +120 this morning through MyStake - their Tuesday reload bonus made it even sweeter. Sometimes the obvious play is the wrong play, especially with concussion returns.

Been following line movements for 15 years and this screams reverse line movement to me. When a key player clears injury protocol and the line moves against his team, that's usually sharp action based on inside info or advanced metrics the public doesn't see.

Remember the Leafs situation in March when Marner came back from his groin injury? Line moved from Toronto -130 to -105 after he was cleared, and he ended up reaggravating it in the second period. These rushing back situations are goldmines if you can spot them.

I'm on Blues +120 heavy tonight. Sometimes the market tells you everything you need to know.

Actually think you guys are overthinking this one. Scheifele looked fine in practice yesterday - full contact, taking draws, running PP drills. The line movement is more about St. Louis getting healthy at the right time. They just got Buchnevich back from his shoulder injury and Kyrou's been heating up with 6 points in his last 4.

Jets are 7-2-1 in their last 10 at home and Hellebuyck's been standing on his head. Even if Scheifele plays 18 minutes instead of 22, this team has enough depth to handle the Blues. The -120 is actually good value compared to where this line should be.

Locked in Jets moneyline through Rabona at -120 before it potentially moves back. Their live betting interface is solid for in-game adjustments too.

Love seeing the line movement analysis here! I'm pretty new to tracking this stuff but grabbed Jets -120 yesterday just based on Scheifele being back. Didn't realize there was so much more to consider with the injury comeback angle.

Is there a good resource for tracking these protocol clearances and how teams perform right after? Seems like something worth monitoring for future bets.

The data actually supports the contrarian take here. I pulled the numbers on NHL players returning from concussion protocol this season - teams are 12-19 ATS in the first game back, with the under hitting 68% of the time. Players average 2.3 fewer minutes and 0.7 fewer shots in their return game compared to season averages.

Scheifele specifically has a history of cautious returns. When he came back from his knee injury in 2019, he played 16:42 in his first game back versus his 20:15 season average. Jets lost that one 3-1 to Nashville as -150 favorites.

The reverse line movement from -145 to -120 is textbook sharp action. Public sees "star player cleared" and hammers the obvious side, while smart money takes the contrarian position knowing the underlying metrics favor the underdog. I'm on Blues +120 and the under 6.5 tonight.

Hold up @vancoververgas - that 12-19 ATS stat is cherry-picked garbage. You're lumping together all concussion returns when the protocol timeline matters way more than the return itself. Scheifele was out 11 days, not the minimum 7-day hold most players get rushed back from.

The real angle here isn't the concussion comeback - it's that St. Louis is getting overvalued. Buchnevich played 14 minutes in his first game back from shoulder surgery and looked like he was skating in quicksand. Blues are 2-7 in their last 9 home games and their powerplay is still running at 16.8% since December 1st.