CFL betting thread — soft totals, sharp money, and Grey Cup futures

[CFL Corey MTL]

CFL room is quiet on this board and I want to fix that. Opening this for slips, takes, and the Grey Cup conversation as it heats up.

CFL totals are still a softer market than the NFL by a measurable margin. The Stamps over total has been mispriced on damp weeks all season. Specifically interested in: the Stamps and Bombers totals, CFL is a passing league when the wind cooperates, Grey Cup futures pricing if there's one.

Push back where you disagree. I'll edit the original post if there's a clear consensus correction.

[Prairie Punter]

Fifty bucks is fifty bucks. I don't bet huge but the rules I stick to are: never deposit more than I'd spend on a weekend dinner, always withdraw winnings the same day, and never chase a loss across two sessions. Boring but I'm still here and a fair few of my early forum acquaintances aren't.

[Maple Bettor]

Throwing in my two cents — bombers home dogs is a market that only two of the books are taking seriously.

My take: Grey Cup futures are best priced four weeks before the playoffs. You can argue with me on the percentages but the shape is right.

Cheers room — interested to hear the pushback. Canadian and proud. Bet smart..

[Grumpy High Roller]

Same observation, less drama. The Stamps over total has been mispriced on damp weeks all season.

Add: Wind reads in Regina alone are worth a unit on the under most weeks.

Grey Cup futures are best priced four weeks before the playoffs. Moving on.

Logging this thread; coming back to it in a month.

[Fork River Freddy]

Slow and steady wins the bankroll. Started doing this kind of betting a couple years back and the biggest thing I'd say is don't try to be a hero in the first month. Pick one type of bet, stick with it long enough to actually know if it works for you, then expand. Hopping between markets is how you go broke without ever really trying.

[Line Shopper Lukas]

From my Notion log on this exact question — the Stamps over total has been mispriced on damp weeks all season.

On the OP's specific framing: Bombers home dogs is a market that only two of the books are taking seriously. If you want me to walk through the calc I'll DM.

Curious if anyone's seeing the same shape over a longer window.

[CFL Corey MTL]

Throwing in my two cents — grey Cup futures are best priced four weeks before the playoffs.

On the OP's specific point — the Stamps and Bombers totals — yeah, wind reads in Regina alone are worth a unit on the under most weeks.

Cheers room — interested to hear the pushback. Als by a field goal, you'll see.

[Peggy's Cove Pete]

Healthy skepticism on the framing of this thread. Grey Cup futures are best priced four weeks before the playoffs.

What's missing from most takes I see: The Stamps over total has been mispriced on damp weeks all season. Until that's addressed I'm not sold.

Bombers home dogs is a market that only two of the books are taking seriously. I'd rather be early-cynical than late-burned.